Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.383760 0.443046 0.507330 0.582067 0.666418 0.758517 0.866532
2025-06-15 0.308193 0.388091 0.481361 0.597723 0.738402 0.902344 1.107174
2025-06-22 0.232347 0.318487 0.426477 0.570542 0.756261 0.986035 1.290021
2025-06-29 0.180101 0.268330 0.386881 0.555502 0.786409 1.088368 1.509301
2025-07-06 0.139161 0.225362 0.349416 0.537229 0.809747 1.185281 1.734959
2025-07-13 0.115776 0.202855 0.336476 0.550736 0.878396 1.351583 2.074757
2025-07-20 0.093575 0.177578 0.315039 0.548334 0.923838 1.491137 2.394529
2025-07-27 0.078252 0.160350 0.303174 0.558841 0.990329 1.669687 2.792595
2025-08-03 0.066051 0.145916 0.293342 0.571041 1.061160 1.863165 3.235297
2025-08-10 0.051818 0.124152 0.266409 0.549149 1.071956 1.962095 3.539554
2025-08-17 0.039686 0.103425 0.237179 0.517824 1.061419 2.023909 3.789269
2025-08-24 0.032217 0.090830 0.221423 0.509325 1.090801 2.156949 4.172838
2025-08-31 0.025764 0.079027 0.205483 0.499057 1.118190 2.294692 4.589044
2025-09-07 0.022220 0.073523 0.202401 0.515485 1.201011 2.544335 5.234019
2025-09-14 0.017234 0.062386 0.183557 0.493756 1.202720 2.641163 5.607953
2025-09-21 0.013746 0.054299 0.170241 0.482147 1.224182 2.779061 6.074655
2025-09-28 0.010845 0.046867 0.156707 0.467275 1.236124 2.899108 6.518977
2025-10-05 0.009383 0.043756 0.154361 0.480211 1.313568 3.163038 7.276185
2025-10-12 0.007766 0.039362 0.147125 0.478870 1.357061 3.359485 7.913917
2025-10-19 0.006685 0.036599 0.144190 0.488818 1.429698 3.627260 8.725681
2025-10-26 0.005793 0.034218 0.141877 0.500159 1.507557 3.914755 9.605110
2025-11-02 0.004537 0.029467 0.130116 0.481087 1.503763 4.015397 10.087098
2025-11-09 0.003425 0.024685 0.116622 0.453531 1.472769 4.048631 10.421994